Ultra-Processed Foods and Premature Death - Why the Dose Makes the Damage

How the latest global study adds urgency to our choices—and why it’s time to rethink what’s really on our plate.

If you tuned into The Science of Turning Back Time podcast episode on ultraprocessed foods and healthspan, you’ll already know that our modern diets—rich in convenience but poor in nourishment—are quietly undermining our longevity. Now, a landmark global study has confirmed just how deadly this shift may be.

Published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, researchers analysed dietary patterns and mortality data across eight countries—Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, the UK, and the US. Their conclusion? The more ultraprocessed food (UPF) you eat, the greater your risk of dying prematurely—from any cause.

Let that sink in.

For every 10% increase in UPFs as part of your total energy intake, your risk of early death rises by 2.7%. In countries like the UK and the US, where UPFs make up over half of daily calorie intake, the consequences are staggering. In 2018 alone, 124,000 premature deaths in the US were attributed to UPFs.

What exactly are UPFs?

According to the NOVA classification system, UPFs are industrially formulated, ready-to-eat or heat foods made mostly from ingredients not found in home kitchens—think artificial flavourings, emulsifiers, hydrogenated oils, and lab-synthesised additives. What they lack is whole, recognisable food. These products often masquerade as modern staples: packaged breads, breakfast cereals, flavoured yoghurts, snack bars, and fast food meals.

They are convenient, hyper-palatable, and aggressively marketed—but nutrient-poor and metabolically disruptive.

The ‘Dose–Response’ That Should Alarm Us All

The concept of a dose–response relationship—where harm increases linearly with consumption—puts to rest any lingering idea that "a little won't hurt." In this case, the more UPFs you eat, the worse the outcome.

Countries with higher UPF consumption showed dramatically more preventable deaths. While Colombia, with a relatively low UPF intake (15% of energy), had around 4% of deaths attributable to UPFs, this number more than tripled in the UK and US, where intake exceeds 50% of daily energy.

That’s not just correlation—that’s a call to action.

Is it time to change dietary guidelines?

Not everyone is convinced. Critics of the study, including researchers from Oxford and Cambridge, argue that the NOVA classification can be too broad or arbitrary. They worry that calling out UPFs separately from high-fat, high-sugar foods might cause unnecessary consumer confusion.

But here’s the rub: the association between UPFs and poor health outcomes has now been shown across multiple countries and cultures. As Professor Nita Forouhi of the University of Cambridge put it, “We should not ignore such findings,” especially when they’re this consistent.

And while critics rightly point out that observational studies can't prove causation, when the same patterns show up over and over again, we have to ask: is this a coincidence—or a global dietary catastrophe?

What You Can Do—Starting Today

If this study teaches us anything, it’s that cutting back on ultraprocessed foods isn’t just about weight, inflammation, or even diabetes—it’s about adding years to your life.

Here’s where to start:

• Prioritise food that still resembles the plant or animal it came from.
• Cook at home where possible, using whole ingredients.
• Read labels—if it contains emulsifiers, artificial colours or ingredients you can't pronounce, it’s likely a UPF.
• Limit foods that come in packages and boxes with long shelf lives.
• Support local and seasonal produce, and ask your workplace or school to do the same.

Final Thoughts: Healthspan Starts on Your Plate

I created my podcast to help people learn how to slow ageing and extend their healthspan with science-backed, achievable changes. This new study is a powerful reminder that healthspan isn’t just about supplements or exercise—it begins at the end of your fork.

We now have global evidence that UPFs are not just a dietary annoyance—they're a public health threat. So let's treat them as such. Let’s demand better food systems, better choices, and better health—starting today.

Haven’t listened yet?
Catch the full episode of The Science of Turning Back Time on ultraprocessed foods and healthspan here. It could change how you eat—for good.

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